NZESG - New Zealand Economic Study Group

NZESG Meeting 4, 12-13 February 1999

Friday 12 February

  • 10:20am Welcome Peter C B Phillips and Les Oxley
  • 10:30am Applications 1 Chair: Les Oxley (University of Waikato)

    "Estimating a Model of Cyclical Activity"
    Alasdair Scott, (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Discussant: John Haywood (Victoria University of Wellington)

    "Survey Opinion of Monetary Conditions in New Zealand: Determinants and Implications for the transmission of Policy"
    Leo Bonato, Rainer Winkehnann and Robert St.Clair, (Reserve Bank of New Zealand and University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Dimitri Margaritis (University of Waikato)

    "Testing the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure for New Zealand"
    Graeme Guthrie, Julian Wright and Jun Yu (University of Auckland)
    Discussant: Tim Hampton (University of Canterbury)

  • 12:00pm-1:15pm Lunch
  • 1:15pm Applications 2 Chair: Claudio Michelini, (Massey University)

    "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: Univariate Modelling of Selected New Zealand Macroeconomic Series"
    John Haywood, (Victoria University of Wellington)
    Discussant: Aaron Schiff (University of Auckland)

    "International Capital Flows and National Creditworthiness: Do the Fundamental Things Apply as Time goes by?"
    John McDermott, (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Discussant: Richard Harris (Exeter University)

    "Inter-Industry Income Differential in New Zealand: A Puzzle and an Explanation"
    Debasis Bandyopadhyay, (University of Auckland)
    Discussant: John Gibson (University of Waikato)

    "Outside the Club"
    Les Oxley and David Greasley, (University of Waikato and University of Edinburgh)
    Discussant: Robert St.Clair (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

    "Painting By Numbers: New Developments at Statistics New Zealand"
    Nick Treadgold and James Hogan, (Statistics New Zealand)
    Chair: Peter C B Phillips (Yale University and University of Auckland)

  • 3:15 - 3:30 p.m. Coffee

Saturday 13 February

  • 8:30 am Theory 1 Chair: Andrew Weiss (Victoria University, Wellington)

    "Efficient Estimation of the Stochastic Volatility Model by the Empirical Characteristic Function Method"
    John L. Knight, Stephen E. Satchell and Jun Yu, (University of Western Ontario, University of Cambridge and University of Auckland)
    Discussant: Adrian Pagan (Australian National University)

    "A Complete Class of Tests when the Likelihood is Locally Asymptotically Quadratic"
    Werner Ploberger, (Rochester University)
    Discussant: Alan Rogers (University of Auckland)

    "The Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semi-Logarithmic Models with Heteroskedasticity"
    Rainer Winkelmann, (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Jun Yu (University of Auckland)

    "Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels with Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation"
    Richard Harris, (Exeter University)
    Discussant: Peter C B Phillips, (Yale University and University of Auckland)

  • 10:30 am Coffee
  • 10:45am Student Presentations Session Chair: Adrian Pagan (Australian National University)

    "Unemployment and Crime: New Answers to an Old Question"
    Kerry Papps and Rainer Winkelmann, (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Leo Bonato (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

    "On Testing Causality in Finite Samples with Possibly Cointegrated and Non-Stationary Series: Do Government Budget Deficits cause Current Account Deficits?"
    Tim Hampton, (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Julian Wright (University of Auckland)

    "Forecasting NZ GDP"
    Aaron Schiff, (University of Auckland)
    Discussant: Alasdair Scott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

  • 12:15pm-1:30pm Lunch
  • 1:30pm Applications 3 Chair: Alfred Haug (University of Canterbury)

    "Bayesian Analysis of a Calibrated Model"
    Andy Weiss, (Victoria University of Wellington)
    Discussant: Werner Ploberger, (University of Rochester)

    "Bulls and Bears"
    Adrian Pagan, (Australian National University)
    Discussant: Dorian Owen (University of Otago)

    "Nonstationary Binary Choice: A Probability Law for Market Intervention"
    Peter C B Phillips, (Yale University and University of Auckland)
    Discussant: John McDermott (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

  • 3:00pm-3:15pm Coffee
  • 3:15pm Applications 4 Chair: Alan Rogers (University of Auckland)

    "Correlation versus Causation and the Apparent External Benefits of Education"
    John Gibson, (University of Waikato)
    Discussant: Rainer Winkelmann (University of Canterbury)

    "Are Educational Gender-Gaps a Brake on Development? Some cross-country Empirical Evidence"
    Stephen Knowles, Paula K. Lorgelly and P. Dorian Owen, University of Otago
    Discussant: Kerry Papps (University of Canterbury)

    "The Estimation of Consumption Equivalence Scales from New Zealand Quasi-Unit Record Data"
    Claudio Michelini, (Massey University)
    Discussant: Andrew Weiss (Victoria University of Wellington)

    "Data Reliability and the Apparent Irrelevance of Income"
    John Gibson, (University of Waikato)
    Discussant: Debasis Bandyopadhyay (University of Auckland)

  • 5:15pm Closing Peter C B Phillips and Les Oxley