NZESG - New Zealand Economic Study Group

NZESG 16th Meeting
University of Otago

Venue: Council Chamber, Clock-tower Building, University of Otago, Dunedin

Friday: 4 August 2006

  • 8.40 am Registration
  • 8.50 am Welcome

    Session 1: Time-Series Econometrics (9 – 11 am)
    Chair: Peter Phillips (Yale University, The University of Auckland and University of York)

    A random walk through seasonal adjustment: noninvertible moving averages and unit root tests
    Tomas del Barrio Castro (University of Barcelona) and Denise R Osborn (University of Manchester)
    Discussant: Alfred Haug (University of Otago)

    Markov breaks in regression models
    Aaron Smith (University of California, Davis)
    Discussant: John McDermott (Victoria University of Wellington)

    Do long memory time series have amnesia?
    William Rea, Marco Reale, Jennifer Brown (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Aaron Smith (University of California, Davis)

    Scanning multivariate conditional densities with probability integral transforms
    Isao Ishida (University of Tokyo)
    Discussant: Marco Reale (University of Canterbury)

  • 11 - 11.30 am Morning tea

    Session 2: Bergstrom, LIML and IV Estimation (11.30 am – 1 pm)
    Chair: Steve Satchell (University of Cambridge)

    Albert Rex Bergstrom: New Zealand's first econometrician
    Peter C.B. Phillips (Yale University, The University of Auckland and University of York)

    Detecting invalid instruments using L1-GMM
    Chirok Han (Victoria University of Wellington) and Peter Schmidt (Michigan State University)
    Discussant: Giovanni Forchini (Monash University)

    The asymptotic distribution of the LIML estimator in a partially identified structural equation
    Giovanni Forchini (Monash University)
    Discussant: Chirok Han (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • 1 – 2 pm Lunch

    Session 3: Exchange Rates and Interest Rates (2 – 4 pm)
    Chair: Denise Osborn (University of Manchester)

    The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?
    Alfred V. Guender and Řyvinn Rimer (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

    An empirical study of the Chinese short-term interest rate: A comparison of the predictive power of rival one-factor models
    Hai Yan Xu, Bert D. Ward, Gilbert Nartea (Lincoln University)
    Discussant: Isao Ishida (University of Tokyo)

    Level and trend breaks in exchange rates - a model selection approach
    David V. O'Toole (University of Technology Sydney)
    Discussant: Peter Phillips (Yale University, The University of Auckland and University of York)

    Looking at a single currency for ASEAN-5: An empirical study of economic convergence and symmetry
    Zhi Lu Xu, Bert D. Ward and Christopher Gan (Lincoln University)
    Discussant: James Obben (Massey University)

  • 4 – 4.30 pm Afternoon tea

    Session 4: Microeconometric Applications (4.30 – 5.30 pm)
    Chair: Alfred Haug (University of Otago)

    Subsequent citation as a measure of patent value
    Uryia Dolev (University of Canterbury)
    Discussant: David O'Toole (University of Technology Sydney)

    Analysis of oil consumption with dynamic panel data models
    Michael Webb (Victoria University of Wellington)
    Discussant: David Fielding (University of Otago)

  • 7 pm Dinner at St Lee’s

    Saturday 5 August 2006

    Session 5: Finance and Games (9 am – 10.30 am)
    Chair: David Mayes (Bank of Finland)

    Exact properties of measures of optimal investment for institutional investors
    John Knight (University of Western Ontario) and Stephen E. Satchell (University of Cambridge)
    Discussant: David Alexander (University of Otago)

    Identification in empirical games
    Jean-Pierre Florens (Université de Toulouse 1) and Erwann Sbai (University of Auckland)
    Discussant: Stephen E. Satchell (University of Cambridge)

    Analysis of the relationship between the share market performance and exchange rates in New Zealand: A cointegrating VAR approach
    James Obben, Andrew Pech and Shamim Shakur (Massey University)
    Discussant: Clayton Weatherston (University of Otago)

  • 10.30-11 am Morning tea

    Session 6: Applied Macroeconometrics (11 am – 12.30 pm)
    Chair: John McDermott (Victoria University of Wellington)

    Getting real: Some real time applications to the New Zealand data
    Özer Karagedikli and Cath Sleeman (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Discussant: David Mayes (Bank of Finland)

    Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy
    Alfred Haug (University of Otago) and Christie Smith (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Discussant: Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

    How hard is the euro area core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis
    Patrick M. Crowley (Bank of Finland), Douglas Maraun (University of Potsdam) and David Mayes (Bank of Finland)
    Discussant: Denise Osborn (University of Manchester)

  • 12.30 –1.30 pm Lunch

    Session 7: Business Cycles and Growth Cycles (1.30 - 3 pm)
    Chair: David Fielding (University of Otago)

    Business cycle regimes in CEECs production: A threshold SUR approach
    Nektarios Aslanidis (Monash University)
    Discussant: Dorian Owen (University of Otago)

    The New Zealand business cycle: Return to golden days?
    Viv B. Hall and C. John McDermott (Victoria University of Wellington)
    Discussant: Nektarios Aslanidis (Monash University)

    A macroeconomic perspective on skill shortages and skill premium in New Zealand
    Weshah A. Razzak and Jason Timmins (Department of Labour)
    Discussant: Niven Winchester (University of Otago)

  • 3 – 3.30 pm Afternoon tea

    Session 8: Violence, Demand and Football (3.30 – 4.30 pm)
    Chair: Dorian Owen (University of Otago)

    “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” A study of political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt
    David Fielding (University of Otago) and Anja Shortland (University of Leicester)
    Discussant: Weshah Razzak (Department of Labour)

    Are football referees really biased and inconsistent? Evidence from the English Premier League
    Peter Dawson (University of Bath), Stephen Dobson (University of Otago), John Goddard (University of Wales, Bangor) and John Wilson (University of St Andrews)
    Discussant: Erwann Sbai (University of Auckland)

  • 4.45 pm Close of meeting

  • 6.30 pm Dinner at Plato